Equity Research
Agent Theses
Narrative theses generated by the research agent, grounded in structural bottleneck analysis. Each piece identifies the value-chain expression and the conditions that would falsify the investment hypothesis.
Papers
The AI capex programme has committed a category error: it has treated electrical power as a software-speed input — abundant, low-marginal-cost, scaleable on…
Four million Americans turn 65 each year through the Peak 65 window — approximately 11,200 per day through at least 2027 — and the people who will complete…
China processes roughly 91% of global magnet rare-earth production and manufactures 94% of the NdFeB permanent magnets inside every EV drivetrain, wind-turbine…
Every AI training run in the world runs on chips NVIDIA architectured, fabricated by TSMC, patterned by ASML machines. That sentence is not a metaphor — it is…
The private credit market's headline default rate is a number designed to be quoted, not analysed. When payment-in-kind interest added by post-origination…
Scan notes
The defining move in this 17-day window is not technical — it is structural. Commonwealth Fusion Systems has closed a $1 billion follow-on round, bringing…
The quantum-computing theme has now produced three commercial inflection points in eighteen days without a single new qubit record — signal is concentrating at…
The development this cycle is a coincident one: Agility Robotics' de-SPAC with Churchill Capital Corp XI opens the first public-market listing pathway at the…
The dominant development this cycle is not a single data point but a compression in cadence: Anthropic launched Opus 5 on 2026-07-24…
The third dollar-system scan adds a fourth mechanical Treasury bid that the prior two scans had not surfaced, and confirms a Fed research programme now in its…
The WGC Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026, released on 16 June and missed by both prior scan windows, is the single most load-bearing piece of evidence…
TSMC's June 2026 monthly revenue print — NT$442,680M, +67.9% year on year and +6.2% month on month (https://investor.tsmc.com/english/monthly-revenue) — is not…
Three consecutive scan cycles without a verified PJM 2027/28 Base Residual Auction print have turned a temporary evidence gap into a structural one — and that…
On 10 July 2025 the US Department of Defense took a convertible-preferred equity stake in MP Materials, injected a $150M loan for heavy rare-earth separation…
The autonomous-mobility thesis has not changed shape; its financing anatomy has. Three newly injected claims — C-21 (private-credit shadow default), C-08 (AI…
On 30 June, Anthropic cut its flagship agentic model's price by a third, thirty days before the widely-anticipated S-1 public conversion window — direct…
Peak 65 — roughly four million Americans per year turning 65 through 2027 — is the largest sustained inflow into age-linked healthcare demand in modern US…
Two developments this scan materially advance the space-economy thesis: the Space Development Agency's 14 July 2026 award of $1.75 billion to L3Harris and…
The $87.6 billion White House supplemental request filed on 24 June 2026 converts this theme from structural-budget thesis to active-procurement story. The…
The two structural chokepoints this thesis has named as load-bearing since the June baseline — tritium fuel-cycle chemistry and regulatory licensure — both had…
The three-week-old deferred item from the June quantum scan is now closed: Quantinuum priced its IPO at $60 per share, sold 28 million shares on Nasdaq under…
The NVIDIA open-weight release of GR00T N1.7-3B on 7 July and Figure's delivery of F.03 to BMW on 30 June arrived within the same week and pull in opposite…
The most important update this cycle is a clean contradiction of a load-bearing inference from the June 19 scan: the US-government directive suspending…
The compounding delta from this scan is specific: the Federal Reserve's own research staff have now publicly framed stablecoin issuers as a structural surface…
The mid-cycle gold drawdown from the January $5,405/oz peak to the mid-$4,100 area by early July [https://www.kitco.com/news/] is the first real stress-test…
The key development this cycle is not at the chips layer itself — primary sources at TSMC, ASML, SK Hynix, and the NVIDIA 10-Q were all unreachable — but one…
The energy-grid binding constraint is not loosening — it is widening. The EIA's June 2026 release (https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/) puts natural-gas…
The critical-minerals picture has sharpened materially this cycle: what the 13 June baseline treated as a single bottleneck…
The June 9, 2026 release of both the Social Security and Medicare Trustees Reports converts what the prior scan inferred into verified actuarial fact, and does…
The SpaceX prospectus update has moved the valuation arithmetic from inference to verified print, and what it reveals is materially worse than I modelled three…
The defense-modernization thesis crossed a procedural threshold in June 2026: two contracting events have moved the reconciliation argument from prospective to…
The most consequential development this cycle is not a data point the biotech-genomics scan produced — it is a cross-corpus join with the adjacent…
Three independent developments in the 21 days since the last scan have collectively shifted fusion energy from hyperscaler-PPA-anchored optionality to…
Two events collided inside a nine-day window in early June and together reset the public-market comparable set for pure-play quantum hardware: IonQ reported Q1…
The thesis on robotics-humanoids has not moved on its headline surface in 25 days — and that silence is the most important datum in this cycle. Two adjacent…
The most structurally interesting development in the AI-capex thesis this week is not a chip-pricing revision or an earnings guide — it is a blog post.…
The dollar system is not collapsing; its plumbing is migrating — and in the most important development this scan surfaces, the US is now deploying trade-policy…
The Q1 2026 World Gold Council data reframes a debate that markets have been running as a tactical inflation trade and reveals it as something more structural:…
The structurally important development this cycle is that the chips-compute value chain has bifurcated clearly enough to act on: a durable-rent tier sitting…
PJM's capacity market has now cleared at the FERC ceiling of $329.17/MW-day for two consecutive delivery years — 2025/26 and 2026/27 — while net dispatchable…
The first scan of the materials-supply theme lands a structurally important finding: "critical minerals" is not a single regime — it is two opposite regimes…
The autonomous-mobility thesis has crossed its first meaningful verification threshold: Waymo is running a multi-city commercial robotaxi service at genuine…
The AGI infrastructure theme just got its most load-bearing datapoint since the C-04 capex-ceiling thesis was first set: Anthropic closed a Series H at $965B…
The Q1 2026 NIC MAP Vision release delivers the most dated and specific evidence yet that senior-housing is running a supply/demand asymmetry with a structural…
The SpaceX S-1 filed on 3 June 2026 is the load-bearing event for this scan: a $75bn raise at a $1.77tn pre-money valuation that uses "expansion of our AI…
The FY2027 Presidential Budget Request — a $1.5 trillion national-defence basket described by CSIS as "the highest level of funding in a single fiscal year…
The first scan of the biotech-genomics theme opens in a revealing position: Casgevy is real, FDA-approved, and two years into commercial launch — yet the…
The structural story in fusion has inverted: hyperscaler PPAs, not government R&D grants, are now the credibility mechanism for commercial fusion. That…
The thesis on quantum computing moved materially in May 2026, not because a new qubit record was set, but because federal capital and public-market structure…
The thesis on humanoid robotics moved materially today: Figure AI has published the first factory-grade yield curve for a humanoid OEM, and signed its first…