All claims
US sovereign fiscal arithmetic is unsustainable; net interest exceeds defence spending; structural deficit ~$2T/yr forces a choice between inflation, cuts, or financial repression.
—high confidencestructural
as of June 8, 2026
What would prove us wrong
- Net interest falls below defence in 2 consecutive CBO baselines
- Structural deficit < $1T/yr ex-recession
- Treasury auctions clear consistently below 4.0% 10Y without Fed intervention
Posture implications
- accumulateGOLD
- accumulategold miners
- accumulateinverse Treasury ETFs
- avoidTLT
- avoidleveraged-credit financials