Aggregate US equity valuation is inconsistent with positive forward real returns; multiple compression toward historical mean implies ~50% real price decline over a multi-year horizon. Record operating margins (~21%) are the accounting-identity mirror of the fiscal deficit + low household savings, so they compress mechanically when those flows reverse — and the gap can close through TIME (flat nominal prices as earnings grow, 1966–82 analogue), no discrete catalyst required.

as of July 31, 2026