All claims
USD reserve-currency dominance is structurally durable on a 5-10yr horizon despite fiscal strain (C-01); BRICS+ alternatives lack the institutional depth and dealer-of-last-resort plumbing to displace USD within the window C-01 stress matures. The GENIUS-Act stablecoin regime now deepens this: statutory Treasury-buy obligations make stablecoin issuers a new structural (mechanical, not informed) marginal Treasury buyer.
Creditmedium confidencestructural
as of July 31, 2026
What would prove us wrong
- USD share of allocated FX reserves < 45% (currently ~56%, was 71% in 2001)
- Non-USD cross-border trade settlement > 30% sustained for 12 consecutive months
- Sustained eurodollar/repo dysfunction (SOFR-IORB spread > 25bps for 60+ days) without Fed-led resolution
Posture implications
- accumulateUSD short-duration cash equivalents
- accumulatedollar-denominated EM debt of structurally short-dollar economies
- avoidimminent-dedollarisation bets
- avoidisolated BRICS+ payment plays without commercial scale
- avoidlong-duration USD Treasury bets predicated on imminent loss of reserve status