All claims
Energy and grid capacity binds AI capex: dispatchable additions (~5-8 GW/yr) cannot match demand (NERC +69%/+224GW peak revision) on the 2026-2027 timescale. The constraint is thermodynamic, not capital-allocation (Smil's 50-70yr transition iron law + Jevons), and hyperscaler nuclear PPAs (~1.8 GW by 2030) cover ~2% of self-created demand.
Energyhigh confidencestructural
as of July 31, 2026
What would prove us wrong
- PJM clearing < $200/MW-day for 2 consecutive auctions
- NERC LTRA peak demand growth < 30%
- New-net dispatchable capacity additions close the gap to required pace
- Trigger: >40 GW/yr net dispatchable additions sustained
Posture implications
- accumulateGE Vernova
- accumulateSiemens Energy
- accumulateVertiv
- accumulateVistra
- accumulateNextEra
- accumulateConstellation
- accumulateuranium producers
- avoidpure-play AI infrastructure without owned generation