All claims
Passive flows + stablecoin Treasury demand + insurance balance sheets are the marginal price-setters in equities and Treasuries; the informed value investor is no longer the price-setter. The same demographic cohort that built the passive bid mechanically reverses it via RMD-driven decumulation (C-13) — symmetric, no catalyst required.
Creditmedium confidencestructural
as of July 31, 2026
What would prove us wrong
- Active equity AUM > 50% of total US equity AUM
- Stablecoin Treasury holdings < $50B sustained
- Net household equity flows stay positive through the Peak-65 decumulation window
- Trigger: >= $0 net for 3 consecutive years post-2028
Posture implications
- accumulateequal-weight (RSP) hedges against cap-weighted concentration
- avoidlong-duration Treasuries as savings vehicle
- avoidstructurally bid by stablecoins