All claims
The AI-capex bubble and private credit are fused through the same end-investor: hyperscaler capex is increasingly debt-financed (>$100B new issuance in 2025) via GPU-collateralised facilities (CoreWeave-style) into life-insurance balance sheets (~1/3 of US life insurance assets now in private credit). AI-capex stress therefore transmits through private credit into annuity obligations — landing the loss on retirees, not just equity holders.
Creditmedium confidencestructural
as of June 8, 2026
What would prove us wrong
- Hyperscaler capex self-funds from FCF
- Trigger: all four FCF-positive FY2026 and FY2027
- Insurance RBC absorbs private-credit stress
- Trigger: RBC > 250% CAL after a 20%+ private-credit mark-down
Posture implications
- accumulateshort-duration IG / T-bills (flight-to-quality)
- avoidalt-managers with private-credit+insurance AUM (BX
- avoidAPO
- avoidARES
- avoidOWL)
- avoidlife insurers >30% private credit (MET
- avoidPRU)