All claims
AI removes entry-level white-collar roles first (Brynjolfsson: ~13% relative employment decline for ages 22-25 in the most AI-exposed occupations since late 2022; Goldman: ~-16k jobs/month net), severing the wage/payroll-tax pipeline that replenishes both the consumer base and federal revenues — feeding directly back into the fiscal arithmetic (C-01) and breaking the C-04 productivity AND consumer-revenue bull cases simultaneously.
—medium confidencestructural
as of June 8, 2026
What would prove us wrong
- No age-cohort employment bifurcation on replication
- Trigger: no significant 22-25 vs 30+ differential in AI-exposed occupations
- Payroll-tax revenue tracks baseline
- Trigger: within 3% of CBO baseline FY2026-27
Posture implications
- accumulateaugmentative AI tooling for senior workers (MSFT Copilot enterprise)
- avoidentry-level staffing (MAN
- avoidKFY)
- avoidMag 7 ad-revenue names on a 3-5yr lag (META
- avoidGOOGL)