All claims
Japan's 34-year post-bubble case — the most aggressive monetary+fiscal policy in modern history (BoJ owns ~49% of JGBs, balance sheet ~100% of GDP, debt ~260% of GDP) — produced ~zero real equity recovery (Nikkei real ~0.24%/yr 1989-2023) and real residential property -35.9% from the 1991 peak. The mechanism is institution-invariant: same direction in Korea, China, Italy, Germany.
—high confidencestructural
as of June 8, 2026
What would prove us wrong
- Japan real property recovers
- Trigger: > 90 for 4 consecutive quarters without working-age recovery
- Nikkei real return recovers
- Trigger: > 2%/yr trailing 10yr real
Posture implications
- avoidJapanese & Korean residential property/developers