All claims
All projected US working-age growth through 2050 depends on net immigration (Census 2023); native-born working-age growth is negative on trend. Post-2025 policy has sharply reversed inflows (preliminary 2026 estimates: net-negative migration for 2025, first since the early 1930s). The US does not escape the demographic channel — it trades asset-deflation for an immigration-politics problem, making working-age trajectory the most volatile political variable in the system.
—high confidencestructural
as of June 8, 2026
What would prove us wrong
- Native-born fertility recovers
- Trigger: non-Hispanic native-born TFR > 1.5 sustained 5yr
- Net immigration sustained
- Trigger: >= 1.0M/yr for 3 consecutive years post-2025
Posture implications
- accumulateautomation/labour-substitution capex (robotics)
- avoidUS homebuilders (DHI
- avoidLEN
- avoidPHM)
- avoidprime-age-dependent consumer discretionary