All claims
The cohort that built the passive equity bid mechanically reverses it through RMD-driven net selling: retirees net-sell financial assets to fund consumption above pension income, no catalyst required. This is symmetric to the accumulation that drove C-06, and the Peak-65 cohort (largest in US history) concentrates the selling pressure into the late-2020s-2030s.
—medium confidencestructural
as of June 8, 2026
What would prove us wrong
- Net household equity flows stay positive
- Trigger: >= $0 net for 3 consecutive years post-2028
- RMD deferral defers the bulge
- Trigger: >20% of Peak-65 selling deferred beyond 2040
Posture implications
- accumulateannuity/guaranteed-income providers (MET
- accumulatePRU)
- accumulateeldercare REITs (WELL
- accumulateVTR)
- avoidS&P 500 passive vehicles (SPY
- avoidVOO)
- avoidlarge-cap growth (QQQ)