All claims
Ferguson's Law (net interest > defence spending) was breached in FY2024 ($881B vs $874B) for the first time in ~a century, with FY2026 annualising above $1T interest. The historical record of states crossing this line (Bourbon France, Ottoman, Edwardian Britain, Habsburg Spain) shows consistent structural reorganisation, not return to status quo.
—high confidencestructural
as of June 8, 2026
What would prove us wrong
- Net interest below defence
- Trigger: net interest < defence in FY2025 and FY2026
- Debt-to-GDP falls materially
- Trigger: debt-to-GDP declining >5pp over 2024-2029
Posture implications
- accumulategold
- accumulatedefence sector (structural budget competition)
- avoidlong-duration US Treasuries