All claims
Turchin's Political Stress Index (a composite of wage stagnation, intra-elite competition, and state fiscal distress) rose from ~7 in 2000 to ~37 in 2012 — comparable to its 1850s pre-Civil-War reading; his 2010 Nature prediction of 2010-2020 instability was empirically validated (PLOS ONE 2020 retrospective: instability rose 'an order of magnitude').
—medium confidencestructural
as of June 8, 2026
What would prove us wrong
- PSI declines
- Trigger: PSI <= 20 in a 2024-2026 estimate
- Instability rise not replicated
- Trigger: incidence growth < 3x (vs claimed ~10x)
Posture implications
- avoidfinancials and consumer discretionary (political regime-risk premium)