All claims
Average G7 sovereign debt-to-GDP crossed 100% in 2020, matching the post-WWII peak — but the post-WWII debt was resolved mainly through demographic-driven nominal-GDP denominator expansion. The current configuration lacks that mechanism (working-age peaks already passed in Japan, Germany, Italy, China, Korea; US growth immigration-dependent), so the prior resolution path is precluded.
—medium confidencestructural
as of June 8, 2026
What would prove us wrong
- US labour force growth via immigration
- Trigger: >= 1.5%/yr sustained 2025-2035
- Nominal GDP outpaces deficit+interest
- Trigger: nominal GDP > 6%/yr for 5yr with negative primary balance
Posture implications
- avoidlong-duration G7 sovereign bonds