All claims
China's current-account surplus (~$700-900B in 2024; goods-trade surplus >$1T) is the mechanical result of domestic income distribution under-paying households relative to productivity (household consumption ~38% of GDP, ~20pp below the US). It is not resolvable by trade policy because the consumption-enabling institutions have not been built; the surplus is forced onto global markets.
—high confidencestructural
as of June 8, 2026
What would prove us wrong
- Household consumption rises
- Trigger: >= 50% of GDP sustained 3yr
- Surplus narrows via expansion
- Trigger: CA surplus < 1.5% GDP AND real GDP growth > 4%
Posture implications
- accumulatenearshoring beneficiaries (Vietnam
- accumulateMexico) at the margin
- avoidglobal sectors exposed to Chinese overcapacity (steel
- avoidsolar
- avoidEVs
- avoidbatteries)