All claims
USD share of allocated global FX reserves fell from ~73% (2001) to ~56% (2025), absorbed mostly by gold and a basket of smaller currencies — not a rival (RMB ~2.5% despite a decade of internationalisation policy) — while dollar FX trading volumes hold ~88%. De-dollarisation is a real long-run vector but, on the empirical record, not a near-term investment thesis.
—high confidencemixed
as of June 8, 2026
What would prove us wrong
- USD COFER share collapses
- Trigger: USD < 45% by end-2030
- RMB reserve share rises
- Trigger: RMB >= 10% by 2035
Posture implications
- accumulategold (central-bank buying ~1
- accumulate000t/yr)