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All claims

USD share of allocated global FX reserves fell from ~73% (2001) to ~56% (2025), absorbed mostly by gold and a basket of smaller currencies — not a rival (RMB ~2.5% despite a decade of internationalisation policy) — while dollar FX trading volumes hold ~88%. De-dollarisation is a real long-run vector but, on the empirical record, not a near-term investment thesis.

high confidencemixed

as of June 8, 2026

What would prove us wrong

USD COFER share collapses
Trigger: USD < 45% by end-2030
RMB reserve share rises
Trigger: RMB >= 10% by 2035

Posture implications

  • accumulategold (central-bank buying ~1
  • accumulate000t/yr)