All claims
The financial system is a coupled-fragility / phase-transition system (Bar-Yam co-movement, Taleb second-derivative fragility, Sornette LPPL) that resolves via discontinuity, not smooth correction; Howell's Global Liquidity Index is the coupling vector, and the ~$40T 2026-2028 global debt-refinancing wall is the calendar-fixed trigger window.
—medium confidencestructural
as of June 8, 2026
What would prove us wrong
- Cross-asset correlation stays below the precursor zone
- Trigger: < 0.55 through 2026
- No sustained turbulence
- Trigger: does not sustain > 35 for 5+ consecutive days through 2027
Posture implications
- accumulategold
- accumulateshort-duration TIPS
- accumulatecash equivalents (SHV)
- avoidlong-duration fixed income (TLT)
- avoidhighly-levered cyclicals