All claims
Office CMBS delinquency reached ~12.3% (Jan 2026), a record above the 2008 peak, with ~$1.5T CRE debt maturing in 2026; separately ~$300B of private credit sits in semi-liquid retail-redemption structures against illiquid underlying. Both are queued fragilities in the same liquidity-coupling system, with depleted absorption capacity because regional banks (>70% of US CRE) have carried three years of mark-to-model deferral.
Credithigh confidencestructural
as of June 8, 2026
What would prove us wrong
- Office CMBS delinquency reverses
- Trigger: < 10.7% for 2 consecutive months by Q4 2026
- No large redemption gate
- Trigger: zero gates on vehicles > $10B AUM through 2027
Posture implications
- accumulateindustrial/logistics REITs with no office exposure (PLD
- accumulateSTAG)
- avoidregional banks with CRE concentration (NYCB
- avoidVLY)
- avoidnon-traded REITs (BREIT
- avoidBCRED)
- avoidoffice REITs (VNO
- avoidSLG)