All claims
The Fed cannot simultaneously absorb all five 2026-2027 fragilities — private credit, CRE, JGBs (BoJ ~49% of JGBs; repatriation sells USTs), consumer stress, and the AI-capex plateau — because Hunt's velocity collapse (M2V ~1.30 vs 2.20 peak) breaks the easing-to-growth transmission, so the 2020 intervention template (single-vector shock + balance-sheet room + functional velocity) cannot repeat in a multi-vector, velocity-constrained configuration.
—medium confidencestructural
as of July 31, 2026
What would prove us wrong
- Velocity channel reopens
- Trigger: M2V > 1.40 for 2 consecutive quarters after easing onset
- Easing transmits to growth
- Trigger: real GDP > 2.5% within 4 quarters of first cut; DXY > 95; 10y breakeven < 3.5%
Posture implications
- accumulateshort-duration TIPS (VTIP)
- accumulategold (GLD)
- accumulatecommodity producers with pricing power (FCX
- accumulateenergy majors)
- avoidlong-duration Treasuries (TLT)
- avoidlevered growth pricing a clean Fed pivot