All claims
As AI inference commoditises and platform-layer margins compress, value migrates to the physical-input layer — energy, materials, grid — where picks-and-shovels suppliers earn the revenue the software layer fails to translate. Load-bearing signal: PJM cleared at the FERC cap ($329.17/MW-day) for two consecutive years (~11x the 2024 clearing); DeepSeek's sub-$6M training is the commoditisation trigger.
Energyhigh confidencestructural
as of July 31, 2026
What would prove us wrong
- PJM constraint resolves
- Trigger: < $100/MW-day in either of the next two auctions
- Platform layer earns its capex
- Trigger: > 300bps expansion YoY for 2 consecutive years
Posture implications
- accumulateAlcoa (AA)
- accumulatecopper (COPX)
- accumulateuranium (CCJ)
- accumulategrid equipment (GRID)
- accumulatemidstream (ET
- accumulateWMB)
- avoidMag 7 at current multiples
- avoidundisciplined oil & gas E&P